Argentina captain Lionel Messi has emerged as the leading favourite to win a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or after inspiring the Albiceleste to the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a brilliant performance against England.
The 39-year-old football icon delivered two assists as Argentina came from behind to defeat England 2-1 in Wednesday's semi-final, booking a mouthwatering World Cup final clash against Spain.
Messi's latest masterclass has reignited his Ballon d'Or campaign, with his performances on football's biggest stage significantly boosting his chances of claiming the prestigious individual honour once again.
Messi Becomes Ballon d'Or Front-Runner
Following Argentina's victory over England, prediction platform Polymarket now places Messi at the top of the Ballon d'Or race.
The Argentine legend is currently given a 31.7% chance of lifting the award later this year, narrowly ahead of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal, who sits second with 30.9% after an outstanding season for club and country.
England captain Harry Kane occupies third place with a 13.5% probability, while reigning Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembélé has dropped to 3.1% following France's elimination from the World Cup.
Although prediction markets reflect public expectations rather than the official voting process, the latest projections highlight the significant impact of the World Cup on the race for football's highest individual honour.
World Cup Final Could Decide the Winner
Messi's influence at the tournament has continued to grow, with the veteran playmaker producing decisive moments despite being the oldest outfield player among the leading Ballon d'Or contenders.
The Argentina captain will have another opportunity to strengthen his case when the defending champions take on Spainin Sunday's World Cup final.
Victory would not only see Argentina successfully defend their World Cup crown but could also cement Messi's status as the overwhelming favourite to win an unprecedented ninth Ballon d'Or.
Yamal, Kane Still in the Race
Despite Messi's rise to the top of the rankings, the Ballon d'Or race remains highly competitive.
Spanish teenager Lamine Yamal has enjoyed a sensational campaign with Barcelona and has been instrumental in Spain's run to the World Cup final, making him one of Messi's biggest challengers.
Meanwhile, Harry Kane remains in contention following another prolific season with Bayern Munich and England, despite the Three Lions' semi-final exit.
For Ousmane Dembélé, however, France's failure to reach the World Cup final has dealt a significant blow to his hopes of retaining the award.
Ballon d'Or Ceremony Set for October
The winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or will be announced on October 26 during the 70th edition of the prestigious awards ceremony.
The event, jointly organised by France Football and UEFA, will be held in London for the first time since the Ballon d'Or was introduced in 1956.