The World Bank has revealed that approximately 139 million Nigerians are now living in poverty, despite recent government reforms that have boosted revenues across all tiers of government.
This was disclosed by the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, during the launch of the Nigeria Development Update in Abuja on Wednesday, October 8, 2025.
Verghis noted that while Nigeria’s economy has shown signs of stabilisation, the benefits have yet to translate into better living conditions for most citizens. He explained that poverty began to rise in 2019 due to policy missteps and external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and has continued to worsen even amid ongoing reforms.
According to him, Nigeria’s economic indicators have recently improved, with revenue growth, debt reduction, a stabilising foreign exchange market, increasing reserves, and gradually easing inflation.
“So these results are exactly what you need to see in a stabilisation. These are big achievements,” Verghis said. “However, despite these stabilisation gains, many Nigerians are still struggling. Most households are dealing with eroded purchasing power. In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty. The challenge is clear — how to translate the gains from the stabilisation reforms into better living standards for all.”
The World Bank director stressed the need for Nigeria to curb inflation, especially food inflation, improve the effective use of public funds, and expand social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable.
“Food inflation affects everybody but particularly the poor and has the potential to undermine political support for the reforms,” he warned. “Public resources must be used more effectively to ensure that spending drives real development results that benefit people, and the poorest and most vulnerable must be supported through stronger safety nets.”
Presenting an overview of the report titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, Samer Matta, highlighted that federation revenues have risen significantly over the past eight months of 2025.
However, Matta expressed concern over the large deductions made by revenue-collecting agencies, noting that such spending does not directly contribute to the country’s development.
He said the outlook for Nigeria remains “cautiously optimistic,” supported by steady growth, easing inflation, fiscal stability, and a stronger external position — though challenges such as oil price shocks, reform fatigue, election uncertainty, and climate-related disruptions persist.
According to the report, Nigeria’s GDP growth is projected to rise modestly to 4.4 percent by 2027, driven by a rebound in agriculture, strong service-sector performance, and improved industrial output. Inflation is expected to ease to 15.8 percent by 2027, supported by tight monetary policy and reduced supply pressures.
The fiscal deficit is projected to average 2.7 percent of GDP between 2026 and 2027, with rising revenues from tax reforms and lower interest payments expected to keep public debt stable at around 40 percent of GDP.
The report also revealed increased spending by both federal and state governments, with subnational governments allocating nearly 60 to 65 percent of their budgets to capital expenditure (capex). This figure is projected to rise from about 1 percent of GDP in 2022 to 2.7 percent in 2025.
However, it noted that the federal government’s wage bill still accounts for roughly 70 percent of its total spending, leaving limited room for capital investments.
“The outlook is subject to several risks: growth and disinflation remain vulnerable to oil price shocks, reform fatigue, election uncertainties, and climate shocks,” the report concluded.
