Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s former president and retired Major General, who first ruled as a military leader from 1983 to 1985 before being elected in 2015, has left behind a legacy of economic and social decline, according to political risk analysis firm SBM Intelligence.
In its post on X (formerly Twitter), SBM Intelligence stated that Buhari’s presidency from 2015 to 2023 was marked by severe deterioration across key sectors despite isolated achievements.
“During the Buhari administration (2015-2023), Nigeria faced significant decline,” the firm wrote, noting that GDP per capita fell by 38% to $1,597, and the country experienced two recessions.
Buhari had come into power in 2015 on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the “change candidate” promising to fight corruption, revive the economy, and tackle insecurity. However, SBM’s analysis concluded that Nigeria under Buhari became “poorer, less secure, and more indebted.”
Inflation more than doubled under his watch, reaching 24.66%, while oil production dropped by 30%, largely due to oil theft, vandalism, and declining global demand.
The report painted a grim picture of social conditions as well, with unemployment tripling to 33.2%. Healthcare also suffered, as the doctor-to-patient ratio worsened from 1 doctor per 4,000 patients to 1 doctor per 9,000. Additionally, the number of out-of-school children remained alarmingly high at 10.5 million, with education’s share of the national budget falling from 10.7% to 4.95%.
SBM Intelligence also highlighted the worsening insecurity during Buhari’s presidency, reporting that an average of 15,000 violent deaths occurred annually. The violence was driven by insurgency in the Northeast, banditry in the Northwest, and farmer-herder clashes in the Middle Belt.
On Nigeria’s fiscal health, the organisation noted that the national debt quadrupled under Buhari, but the increased borrowing failed to translate into significant infrastructure growth.
While Buhari’s supporters have praised his agricultural reforms, anti-corruption efforts, and infrastructure projects, critics argue that his administration was plagued by economic mismanagement, human rights abuses, and an over-reliance on debt.
Buhari, who handed over to President Bola Tinubu in May 2023, passed away in London on Sunday, July 13, 2025. Although tributes have continued to pour in following his death, SBM’s assessment adds to the divided opinions on the lasting impact of his leadership on Nigeria’s future.
