More than a month after the Premier League found Manchester City guilty of 114 charges related to financial rule breaches and obstructing the investigation, the club remains in limbo. They continue to play and win matches, sitting second in the table, yet no one knows the true stakes of those games. A title challenge, voided results, or a relegation battle via a heavy points deduction all remain possible.
Given the severity of the verdict and City’s strong denials, relegation appears increasingly likely. But here’s the twist: even if they are forced out of the Premier League, they could still win the Champions League.
Sportsbooks currently list City as sixth favourites for the European Cup, behind Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, with roughly a 10% chance. Relegation could actually improve those odds. With Premier League games suddenly meaningless — or potentially cancelled altogether — the club’s focus would shift almost entirely to Europe. Fewer domestic fixtures would mean fresher players and a reduced risk of injuries to key stars, an advantage already enjoyed by PSG in recent seasons thanks to lighter league schedules.
UEFA would find it difficult to ban City from European competition, given that a previous ban was overturned on appeal six years ago on technical grounds. The Premier League’s ruling applies only to English football.
The closest historical parallel is Juventus after the 2006 Calciopoli scandal. The Italian giants were relegated despite finishing top of Serie A and promptly lost a raft of star players, including Zlatan Ibrahimović, Patrick Vieira, Fabio Cannavaro and Gianluca Zambrotta. Yet they still dominated Serie B and returned stronger.
A similar exodus could hit City. Stars such as Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Joško Gvardiol, Erling Haaland and others might leave. However, winning the Champions League this season would secure a place in next year’s competition and generate around €170 million in revenue. That might persuade some players to stay for one season in the Championship.
Even so, the financial hit would be severe. The drop from Premier League to Championship broadcast revenue is estimated at around €300 million, with further commercial losses likely. City’s wage bill — the second-highest in world football — would be unsustainable. Forced sales of high-earning players would almost certainly come at discounted fees, creating accounting complications.
Winning the Champions League would bring prestige and cash, but it would not erase the fundamental reality. If Manchester City are relegated, most of their biggest names are unlikely to be wearing sky blue next season. The result would be one of the strangest outcomes in modern European football: a club crowned champions of Europe while playing in England’s second tier.