With the 2026–27 NBA regular season well underway and the February 11 trade deadline fast approaching, early injuries and rotation flaws are already testing the league’s top title hopefuls. Based on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) top 10, here is a breakdown of what each contender is missing, their financial flexibility, and what moves—if any—they are likely to make.
1. San Antonio Spurs (10–2)
Projected Record: 62–20 | Conference Finals Odds: 58.5%
The Need: Guard and frontcourt insurance. Despite rolling without injured offseason acquisition Tobias Harris, San Antonio wants to avoid relying on deep reserves like Jordan McLaughlin in the playoffs and remains slightly thin behind Luke Kornet at center, even with rookie Tarris Reed Jr. impressing.
Trade Ammunition: Four tradeable first-round picks (including Atlanta's unprotected 2027 first), four future pick swaps, and 12 second-rounders.
The Outlook: Expect San Antonio to stand pat. With Victor Wembanyama’s extension kicking in next season, Stephon Castle due an extension this summer, and coach Mitch Johnson already struggling to divide 240 minutes across a deep roster, GM Brian Wright is hesitant to add long-term salary.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (8–4)
Projected Record: 58–24 | Conference Finals Odds: 43.5%
The Need: Two-way wing depth while Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace recover from injuries. The Nov. 8 buy-low acquisition of Nique Clifford adds a body, though he may not move the needle in May.
Trade Ammunition: Expiring contracts for Nikola Topic ($5.4M) and Thomas Sorber ($4.9M), three trade exceptions (up to $17.7M), seven first-round picks, and 19 second-rounders. Being over the first apron prevents taking back extra salary.
The Outlook: Patience remains GM Sam Presti’s hallmark. Aside from exploring minor upgrades, Oklahoma City is unlikely to swing a blockbuster, prioritizing long-term financial flexibility around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
3. Boston Celtics (10–2)
Projected Record: 59–23 | Conference Finals Odds: 57.0%
The Need: Defensive rebounding help (currently 22nd in the NBA) and frontcourt insurance to keep Mitchell Robinson around 20 minutes per night while managing workloads for Jayson Tatum (in his first full season back from a 2025 Achilles tear) and Paul George.
Trade Ammunition: An open roster spot, $1.75M in breathing room below the luxury tax, and up to $10M usable from a $27.7M trade exception under first-apron rules.
The Outlook: Active buyers. Because they sit below the first apron, Boston can target the buyout market for waived veterans who previously earned $15M+ or deploy their trade exception to fortify the paint for an Eastern Conference run.
4. Houston Rockets (9–3)
Projected Record: 55–27 | Conference Finals Odds: 23.8%
The Need: Reliable perimeter shooting—only two perimeter players are hitting above 37% from deep, including injury-prone Bogdan Bogdanovic—alongside center depth while Steven Adams and Clint Capela nurse injuries.
Trade Ammunition: An unprotected Suns 2027 first-round pick, Brooklyn swap rights, four additional first-rounders, an open roster spot, and a full $13.3M trade exception.
The Outlook: Likely standing pat unless a bargain emerges. With Fred VanVleet back alongside offseason additions Bogdanovic and Marcus Smart, Houston has plenty of size and versatility to lean on internally.
5. New York Knicks (6–5)
Projected Record: 54–28 | Conference Finals Odds: 42.0%
The Need: Frontcourt reinforcement behind Andre Drummond after losing Mitchell Robinson in the offseason, plus more consistent perimeter shot creation amid Mikal Bridges’ early shooting slump.
Trade Ammunition: Pacome Dadiet’s $3M expiring deal, one tradeable first-round pick, and 12 second-rounders. Sitting just $809,000 below the second apron severely restricts their options, barring them from signing players until Feb. 14 or targeting high-salaried buyouts.
The Outlook: Limited flexibility. With owner James Dolan unwilling to cross the second apron and Bridges owed over $116.5M over the next three seasons, New York is banking on internal improvement rather than a major midseason shakeup.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (11–2)
Projected Record: 54–28 | Conference Finals Odds: 13.9%
The Need: Defensive rebounding (28th in the league) and a physical backup center behind Walker Kessler, as Kevon Looney has fallen behind Jarred Vanderbilt and stretch-five Sandro Mamukelashvili in the rotation.
Trade Ammunition: Packaging Jaden Hardy ($6M) and Vanderbilt ($12.4M) allows L.A. to absorb up to $26M in salary while staying under its $8.1M first-apron cushion. Draft capital is thin—just a 2028 first-round swap and three second-rounders.
The Outlook: Monitoring health first. After waiving Dalton Knecht to finalize their 15-man roster, the Lakers’ ceiling hinges on Luka Dončić, Kessler, and Austin Reaves—who recently exited with a left heel injury—staying healthy.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (8–3)
Projected Record: 54–28 | Conference Finals Odds: 26.0%
The Need: Proven frontcourt depth after trading Julius Randle and Naz Reid over the summer, though backup bigs Joan Beringer and Trey Lyles have held up well early.
Trade Ammunition: Virtually bare—zero tradeable first-round picks, one 2030 second-rounder, and Cody Williams’ expiring $6M contract, with apron rules blocking any net salary increase.
The Outlook: Internal reinforcement. Minnesota is 5–2 with the NBA’s top defense while Anthony Edwards recovers from knee surgery (targeting a late-December or early-January return), with offseason pickups LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga thriving alongside Ayo Dosunmu. The eventual return of Donte DiVincenzo from a 2026 playoff Achilles tear serves as their de facto deadline addition.
8. Detroit Pistons (7–3)
Projected Record: 55–27 | Conference Finals Odds: 44.4%
The Need: A true co-star scorer and playmaker alongside Cade Cunningham, as Duncan Robinson is the only other perimeter player averaging over 12 points per game.
Trade Ammunition: Up to four tradeable first-round picks, swap rights in each of the next seven years, 11 second-rounders, $14.5M under the first apron, and sizable expiring contracts in John Collins ($17M), Robinson ($16M), and Isaiah Joe ($11.3M).
The Outlook: Best positioned to swing big. While Detroit stood pat last season to let its young core grow, its war chest of picks and expiring salaries makes it the most dangerous potential buyer if a star hits the market.
9. Philadelphia 76ers (9–3)
Projected Record: 49–33 | Conference Finals Odds: 21.1%
The Need: A reliable backup center behind Joel Embiid—with Ariel Hukporti out for the season (Achilles) and Dominick Barlow, Adem Bona, and Tacko Fall all dealing with injuries, Philadelphia cannot lean permanently on small-ball LeBron James lineups or Jabari Walker alone.
Trade Ammunition: An open roster spot (usable starting Dec. 4), Hukporti’s $3.4M expiring contract (allowing up to $5.2M in return salary), and 10 second-round picks.
The Outlook: Targeted depth shopping. Expect Philadelphia to use its open roster spot or second-round capital to add affordable insurance in the paint.
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (6–6)
Projected Record: 47–35 | Conference Finals Odds: 11.8%
The Need: A perimeter defensive stopper to cover for an exploitable backcourt that ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate.
Trade Ammunition: Extremely tight—Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, and James Harden eat up 85% of the cap, leaving Cleveland $45,000 below the first apron with zero tradeable first-round picks and just one second-rounder.
The Outlook: Minor tweaks only. Unless Cleveland is willing to move Allen or key bench pieces like Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson, the Cavs must hope young reserves Tyson, Meleek Thomas, and Tyrese Proctor develop quickly.